A Pope Resigns, X (The Prediction)

Predictions are useless, yet fun.  As one cardinal said on Sunday, it is the cardinals who vote in the conclave, not the media (or us bloggers).

Yet why go to all this effort, without making myself look foolish.

The basics:  Like the rest of the 1,200,000,000 Catholics worldwide, I have absolutely no inside information on which candidates are "gaining traction" and which have lost attention, over these days of the General Congregations.  I've looked over the "Papabili of the Day" by John Allen ( www.ncronline.org ), and other media sources to get at least a passing familiarity with the bios of cardinals who have attracted media attention.  I've not placed a bet on my candidates.  These are nothing more than slightly informed guesses.

My bottom line:  It is my hope and prayer that the cardinals look beyond Italy and Europe for the 266th Bishop of Rome.  In particular, I hope for a brown face or a black face to appear at the window after the white smoke.  We are a world-wide church (we don't call ourselves catholic for nothing) and it's about time that the leadership of the church make the jump to someone from where the church is growing.

The three candidates I wish would become pope:

Peter Turkson, the 64 year old Ghanaian who is the President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace.

Diarmuid Martin, the 67 year old archbishop (not a cardinal) of Dublin.

Sean O'Malley, the 68 year old archbishop of Boston.

The three candidates I think are the most likely to be elected pope in 2013:

Peter Erdo, the 60 year old archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.

Christoph Schonborn, the 68 year old archbishop of Vienna.

Marc Ouellet, the 68 year old Prefect of the Congregation of Bishops. from Quebec, Canada.

Length of conclave:  It took a reputed eight rounds of voting to elect Karol Wojtyla in the second election of 1978.  I believe that it will take at least that long for the election of 2013.  This would bring white smoke on Thursday, March 14.  

That said, if we do not see white smoke on Wednesday or Thursday, I believe all bets are off, and my hope for a brown face or black face from Asia, Africa, Central America or South America decidedly goes up.

Our prayer:  May the Holy Spirit, the Catholic Church, and the world be the winner with a healthy, holy, and happy pope.